In June 2020, the World Bank published a baseline forecast envisioning a 5.2% contraction in global GDP in 2020. Against this backdrop, our report delivers the best estimate of the global market for physical security products going forward to 2025 based on two scenarios. At this time, COVID-19 has been having second spikes in Q3/Q4 and several countries are experiencing rolling lockdowns. We believe our second scenario looks most feasible where global markets take around a year to return to some normalcy and mass global adoption of a vaccine is achieved within 18 months. We believe this has a probability of 65%.

Counteracting these macroeconomic forces, the pandemic has also created a demand for new solutions to help control the spread of the virus. Physical security products have risen to the challenge, helping to implement social distancing protocols through existing access and video systems with AI-powered analytics. Thermal cameras have also been deployed to measure people’s temperature, with the demand for it being strong. However, their usefulness has been questioned, with the World Health Organization saying that on its own temperature screening “may not be very effective.”

Despite all this, we are still confident of the industry’s robustness and prospects for growth over the medium to long term. Market drivers like the threat from terrorism and crime are unlikely to abate, while urbanization and smart infrastructure will further drive demand for more and better security systems.